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Wednesday, March 19, 2008

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Ebb and flow of capital between nations, otherwise known as Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is the central factor that determines market momentum. In addition, fundamental economic forces such as inflation and interest rates are constantly influencing currency prices. Faith in a government�s ability to stand behind its currency will also impact currency price. This is done in two ways: controls and intervention. Controls restrict citizens from doing things, which have a negative effect on the exchange rate (such as sending money abroad). Intervention takes two forms: changing the interest rate on the currency to make it more or less attractive to foreigners, or buying/selling the currency to raise or lower its market value.

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Good morning. EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY and GBP/CHF all have correlation to a certain degree affecting each other. It simply shows how the money moves around in these pairs. For daily candle studies, it is more accurate to read them all to see where the flow is going, and same for 4 hourly or hourly or even 10 minute charts. In fact, GBP/CHF and EUR/GBP in many cases move a day or two before EUR/USD. Even by watching GBP/CHF and EUR/GBP charts, short term or long-term as above, you can manage to move in front of EUR/USD moves in many cases. Same goes for GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY charts for USD/JPY moves. More study on these pairs moves will reveal some more interesting things too. Good trades.
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Forex currency trading is a form of trading that offers a much greater potential for profitability at the same time the risks are much greater. Foreign currency trading is trading based on the always fluctuating currencies of other countries and how they interact with each other. Since there is no single dollar value, as fluctuations in one foreign currency affects all others, foreign currency trading is always exciting and always changing directions.

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Once Soros of Quantum Fund hit the nail on the head with his theory of reflexivity in the market and that is exactly how these players work in the market. That rather romantic tool of daily candlestick chart is useful because whenever some players start positioning to start or stop short-term moves in Yen market, say several hundred pips, for whatever reasons, it reveals their intention to the market, more often than not. It sounds so weird to say tens of yards are spent relying on indicators so primitive like hand-drawn candlestick charts, but that is the truth in Yen market. Same as millions of soldiers risking their lives depending on how their generals draw up the battle plan with their cheap red and blue pencils in their operation room desk. Crazy world, I would say, but that is the fact. And as you say, battle is a battle and those ones who make their first move with their candlestick may not always win either.

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